We’re down to the homestretch now… 4 more days to Election Day!
Today we’re focusing on younger voters. According to a new poll, the 2006 election may see the highest turn-out of young people in a mid-term election.
In a Harvard poll published on Wednesday, 32 percent of 18- to 24-year-olds said they will “definitely” vote on Nov. 7. That would be the highest youth turnout for a midterm election since the national voting age was lowered from 21 to 18 in 1971.
The reason? Mostly, the war in Iraq.
Besides the war, the government’s response to disasters like the Sept. 11 attacks and Hurricane Katrina is driving young voters to the polls, experts say.
“Young people are typically more focused on national issues, and this has been a national election,” said Hans Reimer, political director of the non-partisan youth voter group Rock the Vote.
The majority of young voters are statistically Democrats.
“This is the first time that the majority of young people are Democrats,” Fleming said of polls of 18- to 35-year-olds. “It’s a really great turnaround for us; 9/11 helped with that, and Katrina was a wakeup call.”
According to the Harvard poll, 60 percent of 18- to-24-year-olds think the country is “on the wrong track,” with 46 percent wanting all troops to be withdrawn from Iraq within a year.
These extra votes may be especially beneficial in battle ground states, which could help make or break a candidate’s victory.
Jane Fleming, executive director of the Young Democrats of America, said that about 41 percent of young voters identify themselves as Democrats, up from many years of three-way parity among Republicans, Democrats and independents.
“This is the first time that the majority of young people are Democrats,” Fleming said of polls of 18- to 35-year-olds. “It’s a really great turnaround for us; 9/11 helped with that, and Katrina was a wakeup call.”
The number of younger voters is also increasing..
Compared with other age groups, young adults had the largest increase in both voting and registration rates between the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, with a record 47 percent of registered 18- to 24-year-olds voting in the latter, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
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Yesterday I was talking about the campaign costs of this election. I found this article over at OpenSecrets.org, which predicts that the 2006 election will cost $2.6 billion.
Some interesting tidbits from the article…
-Despite the apparent competitiveness of this election, the percentage of PAC money going to incumbents is 87%
-The Center’s ranking of industries giving the most money to fund the 2006 elections looks very much like the lists for elections in the recent past. This year, lawyers and law firms top the list with at least $89 million, followed by contributors listing their occupation as “retired” with at least $85 million, the real estate industry ($53 million) and the securities and investment industry ($46 million).
-At least 603,000 Americans, or 0.20% of the population, have contributed more than $200 to a federal campaign or party in 2005-2006.
-At least 71 individuals [in the United States] have “maxed out” this election cycle, reaching the federal limit of $101,400 in contributions to candidates, PACs and parties.
While the news stations are focusing on tight races, there are 54 races this election in which a candidate is running unopposed.
For the 2006 election, 54 congressional races around the country lack either a Democrat or a Republican, the Center has found. Democrats occupy 43 of those seats, and they can count on holding them.
And if history is to be any guide, the incumbent advantage may prevail in this election.
Most incumbents should expect to return to Washington next year. In the last three elections, since the 2000 contest, an average of 97% of House incumbents have won re-election, as have 87% of senators. Political analysts have been saying that 2006 could be a Democratic watershed event akin to the “Republican takeover” in 1994. But that year, 90% of House members still won re-election, as did 92% of senators.
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Finally, on this Friday, I found this really cool quiz over at CNN.com. It measures your political platform on key issues for the election.
